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先涨后跌?余额宝收益率开始反弹了 - 站长搜索
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先涨后跌?余额宝收益率开始反弹了

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2014-09-25 06:53:42 转载来源: 网络整理/侵权必删

站长搜索(www.adminso.com):先涨后跌?余额宝收益率开始反弹了 自今年7月初跌破4.2%以来,余额宝收益率已经在4.1%左右盘桓了78天,变化率不足0.1%。最近1周,余额宝收益率出现反弹,昨日为4.181%

站长搜索(www.adminso.com):先涨后跌?余额收益率开始反弹

自今年7月初跌破4.2%以来,余额宝收益率已经在4.1%左右盘桓了78天,变化率不足0.1%。最近1周,余额宝收益率出现反弹,昨日为4.181%。

《法制晚报》数据小组根据历史数据测算,国庆节前余额宝收益率将重回4.2%以上,但在十一小长假后的首周内,将转为缓慢下跌趋势。

业内分析认为,目前余额宝收益率已基本稳定,预计在今年年底将出现一轮反弹。

去年6月13日,余额宝正式上线公测。当月正值市场“钱荒”,在短短半个月内,余额宝7日年化收益率便从3%狂涨至6%,涨幅惊人。今年1月2日,余额宝收益率达历史最高点6.763%。

但春节过后,余额宝开始遭遇“滑铁卢”。当时法晚数据小组曾预测,其收益率将在3月前3天“破6”。果然,3月2日余额宝收益率跌至5.971%。

从7月8日跌破4.2%至今,余额宝收益率一直在4.1%左右徘徊。记者统计发现,在这78天之间,余额宝收益率最高、最低值相差不足0.08%。

此外,自5月11日跌破5%以来,余额宝收益率在“4时代”盘桓了137天。

预测

十一前回升至4.2%  10月先涨后跌

今天上午,《法制晚报》数据小组根据去年6月至今日的数据测算发现,从即日起至10月上旬,余额宝收益率处于上升趋势,预计在10月1日前将重回4.2%以上。

不过在十一黄金周结束后,即10月11日前后,涨势将出现转折,10月中旬至10月底呈缓慢降低趋势,但无太大波动。

此外,本报数据小组根据余额宝上线以来月平均数据测算发现,2014年前8个月,余额宝月平均收益率呈下降趋势。从9月份开始,这一数字将逐步回升,并于年底前稳定在4.2%至4.3%。

分析

整体表现平稳年底可能反弹

大同证券分析师张诚上午分析称,余额宝收益率今年一路下跌,但其目前的整体表现比较平稳,“即使在6月份,余额宝收益率也并未出现大波动。这主要是因为今年货币政策相对宽松、市场资金比较充裕。”

张诚表示,去年6月份余额宝收益率在半个月内从3%冲高到6%,主要是因为市场缺钱,“这也是货币基金的特性,其收益率与市场资金面密切相关。”

他同时强调,如果后市股市持续表现良好,可能会对资金起倒吸作用,“再加上新股密集发行,会在一定程度上降低余额宝收益率。”

宏源证券研究所副所长易欢欢认为,长期来看余额宝收益率将稳定在3%―4%左右。“当然这只是年内平均值,并不意味着就会维持在这个区间不动。”易欢欢表示,余额宝受市场资金面和政策影响较大,“当市场资金面紧张、SHIBOR飙高时,其收益率必然会随之飙高。”

张诚则分析称,在今年年底至春节期间,受市场资金需求大的影响,余额宝收益率可能会出现一波反弹,但很难涨到今年初6.7%的水平。文/记者平影影谢家乐

标签: 先涨 余额 收益率 开始 反弹


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